Child Evidence

On average, children whose parents divorce or separate score modestly · Child Evidence

family structure / parental divorce & separation

On average, children whose parents divorce or separate score modestly lower on psychological adjustment, conduct, academic achievement, and social relationships than children in continuously married families, and face elevated long-run risk of depression and substance use; but effect sizes are small, most children adjust well, and much of the gap is explained by interparental conflict, parenting, income, and pre-existing differences rather than the divorce event itself.

For the Court

Established that parental divorce is associated, on average, with modestly worse child outcomes; the agreed nuance is that the causal effect is small and substantially confounded.

What This Claim Does NOT Say

Does not establish that divorce per se causes the outcomes; genetically-informed and quasi-experimental designs show much of the association reflects confounding (parental conflict, psychopathology, selection).
Does not claim large effects or that most children are harmed; average effect sizes are small and most children adjust well.
Does not claim staying married is always better for children; ending a high-conflict marriage can benefit children.
Does not generalize uniformly across sex, age, or culture; effects vary and are sometimes larger for girls or when divorce ends a low-conflict union.

Scope — Where It Holds

Supported by multiple meta-analyses (Amato; Auersperg 2019, 54 studies, N≈506,000; Sands 2017) with small effect sizes. Genetically-informed and quasi-experimental work (D'Onofrio & Emery) indicates much of the association is confounded by selection. Harm concentrates where divorce ends a low-conflict union or where post-divorce interparental conflict is high.

Sources & Verification

Seminal

Amato, P. R (2001). Children of divorce in the 1990s: An update of the Amato and Keith (1991) meta-analysis. Journal of Family Psychology.
Meta-analysis
Children with divorced parents scored significantly lower on academic achievement, conduct, psychological adjustment, self-concept, and social relations, with generally small effect sizes.
doi.org/10.1037/0893-3200.15.3.355

Supporting

Auersperg, F., Vlasak, T., Ponocny, I., & Barth, A (2019). Long-term effects of parental divorce on mental health — A meta-analysis. Journal of Psychiatric Research.
Meta-analysis
Parental divorce was associated with elevated adult risk of depression (OR 1.29), suicide attempt (1.35), distress, and substance use, with effect sizes decreasing over recent decades.

Precedent Bridge

Best-interests determinations turn on the child's welfare; the divorce-adjustment evidence speaks to that inquiry.466 U.S. 429 (1984)

Limits & Counter-considerations

Average effects are small and most children are resilient; genetically-informed designs show much of the association is confounding; ending a high-conflict marriage can benefit children; and effects vary by sex, age, and culture and are sometimes larger when divorce ends a low-conflict union.